Whether it is avoided deforestation or reforestation, all land-based projects require a detailed accounting of the potential of carbon credits that can be generated under the project. This includes a rigorous calculation of the baseline greenhouse gas emissions, ex-ante prediction of the potential for carbon sequestration in specific projects, and the impact of activity-shifting leakage.

Terra Global Capital developed the proprietary TerraChange forest growth and land use and land cover change model in conjunction with developing of the VCS reduced emissions from deforestation (RED) methodology. TerraChange is specifically developed for decision-making and GHG accounting of any forest-based carbon credit project type. It is used by Terra Global Capital and its carbon development work for clients. Project types include avoided deforestation, avoided forest degradation, afforestation, and reforestation. It combines state-of-the-art land-use change and forest dynamics (growth, regeneration and degradation) model. It explicitly integrates activity-shifting leakage, and calculates baseline scenarios calibrated using data from a reference region. It can be used at any stage of project development: pre-feasibility, project design, or detailed project preparation and Project Document submission. TerraChange produces carbon offset estimates that have the highest possible accuracies, therefore supporting predictable carbon payments and minimizing under-delivery risks. The maps produced by the model can be used for submission to the VCS and CDM standards.

The land-use and land cover change model is calibrated using a satellite images (e.g. Landsat) or a series of historical land use maps. An unlimited number of images and maps can be used. Calculated deforestation rates are compared to our global database of measured and validated deforestation rates.

Available data is automatically split in calibration and validation sets
Deforestation dynamics are analyzed spatially, using specific spatial drivers such as proximity to roads or settlements, or soil types. For example, it can be quantified whether forest land close to settlements is more at risk for deforestation, or how important existing deforestation in the vicinity of forest land influences future deforestation. This information is integrated to predict the location of future deforestation. The prediction of future land-use can be based on dynamic data such as population growth or expanding infrastructure (e.g. road networks).

Prediction of future land-use change is performed in the baseline and project scenarios. Explicit geographical stratification between project sites, the area of potential leakage through activity shifting and a reference region is included. If necessary, an unlimited number of other scenarios and geographical strata can be included. The potential GHG benefits are automatically calculated, taking into

into account baseline and project scenarios, and increased deforestation through activity shifting in the leakage area. Net values can be used for ex-ante prediction of GHG benefits. Baseline calculations can be used for ex-post calculation of GHG benefits.

TerraChange is fully comprehensive and accounts for all potential project-related emissions including fuel use and emissions of methane and nitrous oxide.

The model fully integrates a VCS and CDM compliant error propagation analysis.

TerraChange is a flexible solution. Our software developers can tailor the model according to your specific requirements, concerns, and local conditions.