TerraChange Land-use Model - Terra Global Capital

Overview

The TerraChange Land-Use Model is a predictive tool that enables jurisdiction-wide and program-level land-use forecasting. By integrating empirical data, statistical modeling, and spatially explicit predictions, TerraChange helps assess deforestation and degradation risks, reforestation potential, and GHG emissions with scientific accuracy.

Spatially Accurate Forecasting: Uses advanced statistical models to map and predict deforestation, reforestation, degradation, and enhancement over time
Large-Scale Risk Modeling: Evaluates deforestation and degradation drivers across jurisdictions to support conservation and land management planning
Scenario-Based Decision-Making: Programs GHG emissions under multiple land-use scenarios, helping policymakers assess potential outcomes
Verification Alignment: Produces methodologically sound outputs that meet third-party verification and carbon accounting standards

Deforestation & Degradation Risk Mapping

Identifies areas most vulnerable to land-use change.

Historical Data Analysis: Uses past deforestation trends to predict future risks
Pixel-Based Risk Assessment: Evaluates land parcels for potential degradation
Scenario Testing: Simulates different land-use policies and their impacts

Scenario-Based Land-Use Forecasting

This component supports land-use forecasting across entire jurisdictions, allowing decision-makers to simulate how policies, economic drivers, and environmental conditions influence land cover over time.

GHG Emissions Forecasting: Calculates emissions from deforestation, degradation, reforestation, and land-use transitions up to 40 years ahead, supporting climate action planning and policy evaluation
Multi-Scale Forecasting: Produces predictive land-use maps at local, regional, and national levels, accounting for infrastructure growth, conservation, and land-use pressures
Policy Impact Analysis: Models how conservation strategies, land-use regulations, and incentive programs affect future land cover, helping optimize policies that balance development and protection

Spatially Explicit Allocation

This component enables high-resolution modeling to ensure land-use transitions and emissions tracking are spatially precise and scientifically credible.

Activity-Shifting Leakage Detection: Identifies whether emissions reductions in one area cause unintended land-use changes elsewhere, ensuring accurate carbon accounting
Baseline Scenario Calibration: Aligns models with historical land-use data to produce regionally relevant baselines, providing a sound basis for comparing projected and actual trends and quantifying emissions removals
Project-Specific Baseline Allocation: Allocates baseline emissions to individual projects within a jurisdiction, quantifying deforestation and degradation contributions across land-cover classes to inform activity design
Verification-Ready Output: Generates standardized, auditable reports that meet third-party validation and certification requirements, ensuring transparent and credible emissions reporting